Canada needs to rapidly escalate public health interventions for its COVID-19 mitigation strategies.
Identifieur interne : 002298 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 002297; suivant : 002299Canada needs to rapidly escalate public health interventions for its COVID-19 mitigation strategies.
Auteurs : Francesca Scarabel [Canada, Italie] ; Lorenzo Pellis [Royaume-Uni] ; Nicola Luigi Bragazzi [Canada] ; Jianhong Wu [Canada]Source :
- Infectious Disease Modelling [ 2468-0427 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
Background
After the declaration of COVID-19 pandemic on March 11th
Methods
We conduct data-driven and model-free estimations for the growth rates of the COVID-19 epidemics in Italy and Canada, by fitting an exponential curve to the daily reported cases. We use these estimates to predict epidemic trends in Canada under different scenarios of public health interventions.
Results
In Italy, the initial growth rate (0.22) has reduced to 0.1 two weeks after the lockdown of the country on March 8th
Interpretation
Prompt and farsighted interventions are critical to counteract the very rapid initial growth of the COVID-19 epidemic in Canada. Mitigation plans must take into account the delayed effect of interventions by up to 2-weeks and the short doubling time of 3-4 days.
DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2020.03.004
PubMed: 32518882
PubMed Central: PMC7270648
Affiliations:
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Computational Dynamics Laboratory, Department of Mathematics, Computer Science and Physics, University of Udine, via delle scienze 206, 33100, Udine</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Udine</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Pellis, Lorenzo" sort="Pellis, Lorenzo" uniqKey="Pellis L" first="Lorenzo" last="Pellis">Lorenzo Pellis</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>School of Mathematics, University of Manchester, Manchester, M13 9PL, UK.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Mathematics, University of Manchester, Manchester, M13 9PL</wicri:regionArea><orgName type="university">Université de Manchester</orgName><placeName><settlement type="city">Manchester</settlement><region type="nation">Angleterre</region><region nuts="2" type="region">Grand Manchester</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi" sort="Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi" uniqKey="Bragazzi N" first="Nicola Luigi" last="Bragazzi">Nicola Luigi Bragazzi</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, M3J 1P3, Canada.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, M3J 1P3</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>M3J 1P3</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wu, Jianhong" sort="Wu, Jianhong" uniqKey="Wu J" first="Jianhong" last="Wu">Jianhong Wu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, M3J 1P3, Canada.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, M3J 1P3</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>M3J 1P3</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Fields-CQAM Laboratory of Mathematics for Public Health, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, M3J 1P3.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="subField">M3J 1P3</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2020">2020</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:32518882</idno><idno type="pmid">32518882</idno><idno type="doi">10.1016/j.idm.2020.03.004</idno><idno type="pmc">PMC7270648</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Corpus">002436</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Main" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">002436</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">002436</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Main" wicri:step="Curation">002436</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">002436</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Canada needs to rapidly escalate public health interventions for its COVID-19 mitigation strategies.</title><author><name sortKey="Scarabel, Francesca" sort="Scarabel, Francesca" uniqKey="Scarabel F" first="Francesca" last="Scarabel">Francesca Scarabel</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, M3J 1P3, Canada.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, M3J 1P3</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>M3J 1P3</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>CDLab - Computational Dynamics Laboratory, Department of Mathematics, Computer Science and Physics, University of Udine, via delle scienze 206, 33100, Udine, Italy.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea>CDLab - Computational Dynamics Laboratory, Department of Mathematics, Computer Science and Physics, University of Udine, via delle scienze 206, 33100, Udine</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Udine</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Pellis, Lorenzo" sort="Pellis, Lorenzo" uniqKey="Pellis L" first="Lorenzo" last="Pellis">Lorenzo Pellis</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>School of Mathematics, University of Manchester, Manchester, M13 9PL, UK.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Mathematics, University of Manchester, Manchester, M13 9PL</wicri:regionArea><orgName type="university">Université de Manchester</orgName><placeName><settlement type="city">Manchester</settlement><region type="nation">Angleterre</region><region nuts="2" type="region">Grand Manchester</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi" sort="Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi" uniqKey="Bragazzi N" first="Nicola Luigi" last="Bragazzi">Nicola Luigi Bragazzi</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, M3J 1P3, Canada.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, M3J 1P3</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>M3J 1P3</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wu, Jianhong" sort="Wu, Jianhong" uniqKey="Wu J" first="Jianhong" last="Wu">Jianhong Wu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, M3J 1P3, Canada.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, M3J 1P3</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>M3J 1P3</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Fields-CQAM Laboratory of Mathematics for Public Health, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, M3J 1P3.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="subField">M3J 1P3</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Infectious Disease Modelling</title><idno type="eISSN">2468-0427</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>Background</b></p><p>After the declaration of COVID-19 pandemic on March 11th</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>Methods</b></p><p>We conduct data-driven and model-free estimations for the growth rates of the COVID-19 epidemics in Italy and Canada, by fitting an exponential curve to the daily reported cases. We use these estimates to predict epidemic trends in Canada under different scenarios of public health interventions.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>Results</b></p><p>In Italy, the initial growth rate (0.22) has reduced to 0.1 two weeks after the lockdown of the country on March 8th</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>Interpretation</b></p><p>Prompt and farsighted interventions are critical to counteract the very rapid initial growth of the COVID-19 epidemic in Canada. Mitigation plans must take into account the delayed effect of interventions by up to 2-weeks and the short doubling time of 3-4 days.</p></div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="PubMed-not-MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32518882</PMID><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>28</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">2468-0427</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>5</Volume><PubDate><Year>2020</Year></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Infectious Disease Modelling</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Infect Dis Model</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Canada needs to rapidly escalate public health interventions for its COVID-19 mitigation strategies.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>316-322</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1016/j.idm.2020.03.004</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText Label="Background" NlmCategory="UNASSIGNED">After the declaration of COVID-19 pandemic on March 11th<sup>,</sup> 2020, local transmission chains starting in different countries including Canada are forcing governments to take decisions on public health interventions to mitigate the spread of the epidemic.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="Methods" NlmCategory="UNASSIGNED">We conduct data-driven and model-free estimations for the growth rates of the COVID-19 epidemics in Italy and Canada, by fitting an exponential curve to the daily reported cases. We use these estimates to predict epidemic trends in Canada under different scenarios of public health interventions.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="Results" NlmCategory="UNASSIGNED">In Italy, the initial growth rate (0.22) has reduced to 0.1 two weeks after the lockdown of the country on March 8th<sup>,</sup> 2020. This corresponds to an increase of the doubling time from about 3.15 to almost 7 days. In comparison, the growth rate in Canada has increased from 0.13 between March 1st and 13th, to 0.25 between March 13th to 22nd. This current growth rate corresponds to a doubling time of 2.7 days, and therefore, unless further public health interventions are escalated in Canada, we project 15,000 cases by March 31st. However, the case number may be reduced to 4000 if escalated public health interventions could instantly reduce the growth rate to 0.1, the same level achieved in Italy.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="Interpretation" NlmCategory="UNASSIGNED">Prompt and farsighted interventions are critical to counteract the very rapid initial growth of the COVID-19 epidemic in Canada. Mitigation plans must take into account the delayed effect of interventions by up to 2-weeks and the short doubling time of 3-4 days.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>© 2020 The Authors. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Scarabel</LastName><ForeName>Francesca</ForeName><Initials>F</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, M3J 1P3, Canada.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>CDLab - Computational Dynamics Laboratory, Department of Mathematics, Computer Science and Physics, University of Udine, via delle scienze 206, 33100, Udine, Italy.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Pellis</LastName><ForeName>Lorenzo</ForeName><Initials>L</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Mathematics, University of Manchester, Manchester, M13 9PL, UK.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Bragazzi</LastName><ForeName>Nicola Luigi</ForeName><Initials>NL</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, M3J 1P3, Canada.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Wu</LastName><ForeName>Jianhong</ForeName><Initials>J</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, M3J 1P3, Canada.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Fields-CQAM Laboratory of Mathematics for Public Health, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, M3J 1P3.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>31</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>China</Country><MedlineTA>Infect Dis Model</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101692406</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>2468-0427</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CoiStatement>The authors declare no conflict of interest.</CoiStatement></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2020</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>25</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="revised"><Year>2020</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>27</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2020</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>30</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2020</Year><Month>6</Month><Day>11</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2020</Year><Month>6</Month><Day>11</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2020</Year><Month>6</Month><Day>11</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>1</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>ppublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32518882</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1016/j.idm.2020.03.004</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">S2468-0427(20)30010-5</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pmc">PMC7270648</ArticleId></ArticleIdList><pmc-dir>pmcsd</pmc-dir>
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